Brexit Report: Article 50 will be triggered and the UK will leave the single market

SOURCES: BBC

Back in October, ThePoliticsView published an article outlining most of the major political news that occurred in September and October 2016. 

In terms of the UK perspective, it outlined how former UKIP leader Diane James had resigned, triggering a new leadership election for the party to occur. It turns out the new leader voted in was Paul Nuttall, UKIP MEP for the North West of England. He now will contest in February’s Stoke Central by-election after it was triggered by the labour party following the resignation of former labour MP Tristram Hunt.

It also stated that Jeremy Corbyn had won the leadership election for Labour, beating contestant Owen Smith to hold his spot as The Labour Party leader. Tristram Hunt was a known critic of Corbyn, hence partly why he resigned, as well as former Copeland MP Jamie Reed who’s resignation has triggered a by-election in Copeland on the same day as Stoke Central, 23rd February.

The Liberal Democrats have shown a resurgence of late winning multiple council elections and the Parliamentary by-election in Richmond where new MP Sarah Olney beat former Conservative MP, turned Independent Zac Goldsmith over the Heathrow Expansion row.  They are clearly aiming to appeal to remain voters after constantly addressing the issues of leaving the EU and critiquing the Conservative Governments Brexit plans.

But how has the following come to fruition?

Simply, you could argue one word has created this change. Brexit.

The country voted for Brexit on June 23rd, and despite numerous of stories and attempts for a Veto on Brexit; including a high court lawsuit against the Government to allow a Parliamentary vote on Article 50, it’s happening sooner than later.

The September/October summary also expanded on how Prime Minister Theresa May has promised Brexit will happen by March 2017.  This is now inevitably going to happen sometime in late March, early April time.

Article 50 will be triggered and the UK is leaving the EU.

Theresa May has stated already that the UK must leave the single market, tighten immigration into the UK and be a world leader in free-trade. 

She has also proclaimed that the two+ year process that Article 50 gives towards leaving the EU, will be heavily negotiated to put the UK first.

She now wants free-trade trade deals for the UK across the globe with other nations as a consequence of leaving the single market the EU allows access members to.

This all sounds rather promising and encouraging despite what critics say. Some say it’s easier said than done, some say it can be done, but it won’t be easy.

It for sure won’t be easy. The UK will now have to intensely lobby the EU to allow the UK to leave with as many benefits as possible. The reason it will be tough, is due to the so-called bureaucracy and stubbornness the EU has in place and the fact they won’t let the UK have to many benefits from Brexit, in case other eurosceptic nations follow suit to a Brexit in there own way.

This is why the UK is accepting it has to leave the single market. There is little to no chance of keeping free market status, if the UK is wanting to stop the freedom of movement into the State. That is a simple fact.

So what will the UK hope to look like post Brexit come 2018/2019 or beyond? In summary:

  • The UK will be officially independent and out of the EU.
  • The freedom of movement into the UK will be stopped.
  • The UK will be out of the Single Market.
  • The UK will begin or expand on free-trade deals globally.
  • The UK will begin to open trade deals with the EU states, hoping to be Tariff and Tax free.
  • The UK will prepare for the 2020 General Election.

That is a basic summary of what the UK will want to look like according to the Prime Minister Theresa May. Will this be the case? It’s very difficult to say. But optimism is essential and the Government will need to go into talks with the EU representing not only the people who voted to leave, but the people who wanted to remain also.

This is going to be the one of the most difficult and uncertain times in UK political history, especially since the 1st and 2nd World War’s.

Not only that, but the UK itself finds themselves in a battle to keep itself together, especially after Scotland’s Leader Nicola Sturgeon is undoubtably going to attempt to trigger another Scottish Independence Referendum before the new decade, after their access to the free-market will be stopped.

Turbulence is undoubtedly expected, but as stated, the UK will leave the EU in some form.

The question is, how do you think the UK will get on both during negotiations, and post negotiations with the EU? 

Will we acquire good trade deals globally?

Will Scotland become independent? 

Will the Conservatives win the 2020 General Election?

Will UKIP be relevant over the next 4-5 years?

Comment your views on Brexit, the UK, UK parties during the Brexit process and a possible Scottish Referendum below

Diane James is named as UKIP’s new Party Leader

SOURCE: BBC

The Greens have named Caroline Lucas and Jonathan Bartley as their co-leaders, Labour will announce there’s soon and now UKIP have named Diane James as their newly elected Party Leader.

UK politics has officially been ‘re-designed’ post voting to exit from the EU, with a completely new direction as to where the UK goes and how it’s governed.

The news of Diane James’ victory for UKIP leadership came yesterday at UKIP’s party conference yesterday.

Below outlines the results:

Diane James 8,451
Lisa Duffy 4,591
Bill Etheridge 2,052
Phillip Broughton 1,544
Elizabeth Jones 1,203

Source: BBC 2016

New leader Diane James, a prominent Vote Leave campaigner,  stated in her opening speech that the Prime Minster Theresa May has to “get on with getting the UK out of the EU”.

Ms James had been strongly regarded as the favourite to succeed Nigel Farage, who has quit as it’s leader following the UK’s vote to leave the EU. He feels that his ‘job is done’ and he has ‘given his all to the party’.

MEP Ms James, won with 8,451 votes, ahead of Lisa Duffy in 2nd, who received 4,591.

She said UKIP was “the opposition party in waiting” and said the Tories “cannot be trusted with true Brexit”.

“The threats to the referendum outcome are increasing by the day,” she said, adding she would reject “Brexit-lite”.

UKIP is known to now be the ‘face of UK Euroscepticism’ for nearly two decades. Mr Farage bows out by helping turn UKIP from a fringe party, into one of the biggest parties in UK politics – in terms of votes at the 2015 general election. He also independently helped towards persuading more than 17 million people to vote to leave the EU.

Ms James further said that UKIP had “moved mountains on the political landscape” and was the “change movement of the United Kingdom”.  She quotes: “I believe in UKIP’s values of liberty, common sense, democracy and pragmatic approaches to the challenges this country faces.”

She ended by telling the party conference that she might use ‘different language’ and be ‘less frank’ than Mr Farage, but she would be honest and “uphold all the beliefs and values that this party stands for”.

When directing this at the Prime Minister, she said: “If you’re watching this afternoon, you’ll be watching the opposition party in waiting.”

What do you make of UKIP’s newly elected leader Diane James?

Will she hold the government into account for Brexit? Will she be a good leader for UKIP? What will she put onto the table for UK politics in the ear of Article 50 and Brexit?

Comment your views on Diane James and UKIP below 

Labour Leadership Candidate Owen Smith states he would ‘consider rejoining the EU’ if Prime Minister

SOURCE: BBC

Owen Smith, one of two Labour leadership hopefuls, the other being the current leader Jeremy Corbyn,  has told Andrew Marr – host of the Andrew Marr show, that he would “consider applying to rejoin the EU if he became prime minister”, when the UK had already left.

It was stated by Mr Smith with reasoning that he “could support the move if the UK was in recession or the NHS was on its knees”.

It is publicly known that he has previously called for the public to ‘have a say’ on the terms of the UK’s Brexit deal.

Furthermore, Mr Smith has also promised to fight towards a general election happening, making a “really strong case for us to stay” in the EU.

However, if the current Prime Minister Theresa May formally triggers Brexit using Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty next year, it means the UK will have inevitably left the bloc before the next scheduled general election in 2020.

Also speaking on the BBC’s Andrew Marr Show, Mr Smith – who is openly emphasising himself as ‘more pro-EU’ than current Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn – said it “was hard to answer a ‘hypothetical question’ about what he would do if he took over with the UK already outside the EU.”

However, he said if the “price of staying out” would cause something as catastrophic as a recession or damage to the NHS – “then I think the sensible and responsible thing for a Labour government to do is to say we are better off in the European Union”.

Despite the 23rd June referendum result to leave the EU, Mr Smith predicted “we will be telling a very different story to the British people” sometime in the future, if people’s well-beings and lives are suffering as a result of brexit.

He finally reiterated his open calls for a second referendum or a snap general election – to formally take place before the UK leaves the EU – on the terms agreed for Brexit.

What do you make of Owen Smiths comments on the possibility of him processing a UK re-entrance into the EU, if elected as PM?

Will this be undemocratic on his behalf to do considering the EU referendum result to leave winning by 3.8%? Will he ever be the PM? Will he beat Jeremy Corbyn to become Labours new leader?

Comment your views on Owen Smith’s ideas and chances of being PM or Labour leader below

Brexit will go ahead, Government Officials announce

SOURCE: BBC

Today, the government have announced that it will ‘push ahead’ and start to work towards triggering Brexit without Parliamentary approval, according to Downing Street officials.

The statement comes after Theresa May’s cabinet gathered at Chequers (the Prime Ministers Country Escape), and after discussions ended, it was announced at Number 10 that an agreement between collective cabinet ministers that their is a need for a ‘unique’ deal for the UK to occur.

Furthermore, Mrs May told cabinet colleagues that their needs to be a focus on the ‘positive opportunities’ that lie outside the EU, as she reiterated there would be no second referendum.

The BBC have outlined that Mrs May has said the UK would not stay in the EU “by the back door”.

The Prime Minister has also said official talks with the rest of the EU will not begin this year.

The respective meeting at the PM’s country residence is clearly the most significant since the referendum vote in June to exit the EU. Despite reports of tensions and diverging priorities among key figures in the Cabinet, the process to leave will go ahead and the Referendum result will be respected.

Its reported that the Cabinet ministers were asked before their summer break’s to identify what were described as the “opportunities” best suited for their respective departments.

These talks are influential upon Mrs May’s empowering words that the government was clear that “Brexit means Brexit”.

She further commented in her speech that: “We will be looking at the next steps that we need to take and we will also be looking at the opportunities that are now open to us as we forge a new role for the UK in the world”

Despite these talks, the prime minister has said the UK government will not trigger Article 50 – the official mechanism for beginning the process of leaving the EU – ‘until the start of 2017 at the earliest.’

Once triggered, discussions over the terms of the UK’s exit will reportedly conclude in two years, unless all 28 members of the EU agree to extend them.

Wednesday’s cabinet meeting is seen as a major opportunity for Mrs May and senior colleagues to talk through the issues involved ahead of this weekend’s summit of G20 leaders in China.

What do you make of the Governments Brexit plans?

Is now the time to get the ball rolling with Brexit? How do you think the UK will negotiate it’s deals with the EU? What will the UK get out of these deals?

Comment your views on brexit below

Pro-Brexit MP Gisela Stuart claims ‘EU citizens are currently being left in limbo’ by the Government

SOURCE: BBC

One of the leading Vote Leave figures Gisela Stuart has said EU citizens in the UK have been “left in limbo” since the referendum result to leave the European Union.

Furthermore, the Labour MP is expected to head a research project on how to protect EU migrant rights after the UK leaves the EU.

It will be a cross-party inquiry for the British Future think tank to examine what kind of legal status’ could be granted to EU citizens in the UK, in time before the process to leave the EU starts by the inevitable triggering of Article 50.

Many Ministers have indicated strongly that they want to protect EU citizens’ status – as long as a reciprocal deal can be negotiated.

It’s reported that multiple MPs from all parties have attacked the government’s stance, saying people “are not bargaining chips”.

Ms Stuart, the former co-chair of the Vote Leave campaign, has stated the government should quickly outline that all EU citizens in the UK – about three million people – will be allowed to stay after Brexit.

She further states that the government should “take the initiative” and emphasize their intentions to protect UK-EU citizens’ rights and that it expected the same treatment for UK nationals abroad.

She also believes Ministers should demonstrate that leaving the EU “doesn’t mean that we’re ignoring people’s rights”.

Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrat leader Tim Farron believes it’s “pretty shameful” for Ms Stuart to be “claiming to be worried” about the rights of EU citizens.

He said she had been part of a campaign that “whipped up anti-immigrant feeling” and “contributed to an increase of hate crimes against Europeans”.

“It is like the arsonist turning round and saying they are surprised that a fire took hold,” Mr Farron has said.

Lastly, David Davis, the newly named Brexit secretary by new Prime Minister Theresa May, will oversee the negotiations on the UK’s exit from the European Union, and has said that he wants to secure a “generous settlement” for both EU nationals in the UK, and British citizens abroad.

Ministers have said it would be “unwise” to fully “guarantee” EU citizens’ rights without a deal for Britons abroad.

What do you make of the uncertainty behind EU citizens rights living in the UK?

Do the government need to state and maintain transparent and accountable help towards EU migrants living in the UK quickly? Will the government fully help EU migrants living in the UK?

Comment your views on EU migrant rights below

Government ‘Guarantee’ post-EU funds after Brexit occurs

SOURCE: BBC

It has been announced today that EU funding, which the UK receives as a member that will consequently be lost after Brexit occurs, given to organisations involving farming, scientists and others, will be replaced by the Treasury, Chancellor Philip Hammond has said.

Brexit could cost up to £6bn a year in losses of funding, but the Treasury will guarantee to back EU-funded projects signed before this year’s Autumn Statement.

The BBC have stated that agricultural funding which is now provided by the EU will also continue until 2020.

However, critics said the guarantee does not go far enough and there was ‘continued uncertainty’.

Voters ultimately backed to leave the EU in the 23 June referendum by 3.8%, but Prime Minister Theresa May has indicated the UK government will not trigger Article 50, which would begin a two-year process to leave, during 2016.

Furthermore, Mr Hammond has said “EU structural and investment fund projects signed before the Autumn Statement later this year, and Horizon research funding granted before leaving the EU, will be guaranteed by the Treasury after the UK leaves.”

The BBC have also said ‘the EU’s 80bn euro (£69bn) Horizon 2020 programme awards funding for research and innovation and is open to UK institutions while the country remains a member.’

The chancellor responded to critics by saying the government was “determined to ensure that people have stability and certainty in the period leading up to our departure from the EU”.

The Treasury said it would assess whether to guarantee funding for certain other projects “that might be signed after the Autumn Statement, but while we remain a member of the EU”.

Currently, farmers receive subsidies and other payments under the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy (CAP).

It’s said that they get about £3bn a year in subsidies, with the biggest farmers pocketing cheques of £1m. The grants are given for owning land and also taking care of wildlife.

The National Farmers’ Union (NFU) said the Treasury’s announcement was “positive” for farming.

Other examples of projects that have received, or are due to receive regional development fund money, include:

  • £5m for the Graphene Engineering Innovation Centre at the University of Manchester
  • £9m for the manufacturing growth programme to support areas in the Midlands, Yorkshire and the Humber and the East of England
  • £3m for a new life sciences incubation and innovation centre at Porton Down in Wiltshire

(BBC 2016)

Reportedly, the UK currently pays money into the EU budget, which will stop once it formally leaves.

In 2015 the UK Government paid in £13bn; EU spending on the UK was £4.5bn, meaning the UK’s net contribution was estimated at about £8.5bn, or £161m a week.

The UK private sector receives a further £1-1.5bn annually in EU funding.

What do you make of the Governments post-EU promisees?

Is the affordable for the UK to do? Will this mean Taxation and further Austerity cuts? Are these promises realistic?

Comment below your views on the post-EU funding plans

UKIP Leadership Race: Steven Woolfe Excluded From The Race After Late Application

SOURCE: BBC

By September, there will be leadership elections for Labour, The Greens and UKIP after the backlash of the EU Referendum sparked resignations and inner party conflicts (apart from the Greens who’s leader Natalie Bennett decided to step down before the EU Referendum).

The Conservatives also were expected to have a new leader in September, however one of the two in the Tory race Andrea Leadsom stood down from the race, meaning Theresa May became the new Prime Minister and Conservative Party Leader.

The article specifically delves upon UKIP’s race, a growing story after being shadowed by the recent Labour Party feuds effecting Jeremy Corbyn as leader, with votes of no confidence given to him by his own MP’s after their public disapproval over his Referendum performance was clearly shown.

Ms Angela Eagle, the former Shadow Business Secretary prompted the backlash through announcing her bid to become Labour Leader. Owen Smith, the current and only person challenging Corbyn to become Labour Leader, then shortly stepped up to the chase in being the new Labour Leader.

However, Angela Eagle stood down from the race, leaving only Owen Smith and Jeremy Corbyn, the current leader, to battle it out for Labour Leadership Status.

So now the Tory race it well and truly over, and the labour leadership race has quietened down slightly, UKIP have no become the news/public eye for leadership races.

Recently, the main UKIP leadership hopeful Steven Woolfe has been ruled ‘ineligible’ to stand in the contest to replace Nigel Farage – after he submitted his papers late. It was reported to be around 17 minutes late. 

This is big news, because according to the BBC, the party’s National Executive Committee (NEC) said it had voted by a ‘clear majority’ to exclude Mr Woolfe – previously seen as the frontrunner.

The MEP said he was ‘extremely disappointed’ by the decision, and three NEC members have quit in protest.

So here are the list of people who are on the UKIP ballot:

  • Jonathan Arnott
  • Bill Etheridge
  • Diane James
  • Lisa Duffy
  • Phillip Broughton
  • Elizabeth Jones

Speaking to the BBC, Mr Woolfe said he believed the NEC had ‘their own reasons’ for excluding him from the ballot, but implied it could have been linked to the fact he was committed to abolishing the executive.

The winner of the leadership contest – which was sparked by Mr Farage’s decision to stand down after the UK voted to leave the EU – is scheduled to be announced on 15 September.

Finally, In a statement announcing the final line-up, the party said: “By a clear majority of NEC members Steven Woolfe MEP’s application was considered to be ineligible as a result of a late submission and as such he did not meet the eligibility criteria.”

What do you make of the recent UKIP leadership movements?

Should Steven Woolfe have been accepted as a candidate, despite handing his application in late? What do you make of the current nominations list? Who do you think will win the UKIP leadership race?

Comment below your views on the UKIP leadership race

Baroness Wheatcroft: “The House of Lords could delay Brexit”

SOURCE: BBC, Times

A Conservative peer named Baroness Wheatcroft, has come out and claimed that the House of Lords could ‘withhold’ the approval of Article 50, the vital mechanism that once triggered will start the process of the UK leaving the European Union.

However, there is still currently some disagreement over whether Article 50 would need to come before Parliament.

But former political journalist Baroness Wheatcroft said if it did, “the Lords might actually delay things”.

It’s said that the government has previously stated that Article 50 could be triggered through use of the royal prerogative.

Speaking to The Times, the former editor in chief of the Wall Street Journal Europe and the Sunday Telegraph said that she “hoped delays in the Lords of any potential Brexit legislation would lead to a second referendum.”

Furthermore, the BBC state that a legal challenge on whether the government can trigger Article 50 without the authorisation of Parliament will be heard in the High Court in the autumn.

Lady Wheatcroft has also said that she ‘did not want the Lords to stand in the way of the UK leaving the EU’ at the moment, but added: “However, if it comes to a bill, I think the Lords might actually delay things. I think there’s a majority in the Lords for remaining.”

Another question asked was whether she would support peers delaying Brexit legislation she said: “Yes I would”.

– “And I would hope, while we delayed things, that there would be sufficient movement in the EU to justify putting it to the electorate, either through a general election or a second referendum.”

What do you make of Baroness Wheatcroft’s claims?

Would the Lords delay or block the triggering of Article 50? Could a delay or block lead onto a 2nd Referendum? Would you like to see a 2nd referendum occur?

Comment below your views of Baroness Wheatcroft’s claims and Brexit so far

G20 announce that Global Economic Risks have ‘heightened’ due to Brexit

SOURCE: BBC

After the UK’s vote to leave the European Union, risks to the world economy have heightened, according to the global finance chiefs at the end of the G20 summit in China.

The outcome of last month’s EU referendum ‘adds to the uncertainty’ for the global economy, the group of the world’s 20 largest economies further said.

“In the future, we hope to see the UK as a close partner of the EU,” the G20 collectively said.

The UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond revealed the subject had come up ‘a great deal’ at the two-day talks.

“The reality is there will be a measure of uncertainty continuing right up to the conclusion of our negotiations with the EU,” Philip Hammond told reporters.

Following the meeting in the Chinese city of Chengdu, the G20 group said it was well placed to actively cope with the potential economic and financial impact from the Brexit vote.

However, despite the threats the G20 agreed that despite the Brexit vote, the global economy ‘would improve in 2016 and 2017’, Mr Weidmann (the president of Germany’s central bank) said.

Separately, G20 policymakers said they recognised that excess steel supply was a global issue.

The excess capacity of steel has had a negative impact on trade and workers and requires a collective response, they said.

It was also announced that Britain’s decision to leave the EU has led to a ‘dramatic deterioration’ in economic activity, not seen since the aftermath of the financial crisis.

Data from IHS Markit’s Purchasing Managers’ Index, or PMI, shows a fall to 47.7 in July, the lowest level since April in 2009. A reading below 50 indicates contraction.

What do you make of these announcements by the G20? 

Has the Brexit warnings by the Stronger In campaigners become a fact? Will the economy suffer heavily from a brexit? If so, will it be able to grow again by 2017?

Comment below your views on Brexit’s outcomes and a potential global economy suffering the G20 have announced as a result of brexit

A Second Scottish independence referendum ‘could be next year’ – Nicola Sturgeon

SOURCE: BBC

Nicola Sturgeon has announced on a BBC interview with Andrew Marr that she would consider a second referendum on Scottish independence as ‘early as next year’ if necessary.

The first minister told the BBC that could happen if the UK government started the formal process of leaving the EU without Scotland’s position being safeguarded.

She has also however, suggested that Scotland could stay in the UK and the EU, if UK talks with the EU have Scotland in the best interests of both sides.

The UK minister responsible for Brexit David Davis, said he did not think this would work.

But earlier, the prime minister Theresa May said she would listen to any options brought forward by the Scottish government.

Mrs May also said she would not trigger article 50 – the formal process of the UK leaving the EU – until there was a “UK approach and objectives”.

Further in Andrew Mars interview, Ms Sturgeon said “Do I think Theresa May will never ever trigger article 50 unless I am happy with direction the UK is taking? I don’t know that is the case. But she indicated she wants, as I want, to find options to respect how Scotland voted.”

When asked if she would be happy to have an independence referendum in the first half of next year, she said: “I will have an indyref 2, if I come to conclusion that is in the best interests of Scotland.

“I’ve always said that. It would be up to Scottish people ultimately to decide if that is right way to go.”

She added that if a referendum was going to be held it would make sense for that to happen before the UK left the EU.

Speaking on the show about Scotland’s position regarding the EU, the first minister said there was effectively a “blank sheet of paper”, creating an opportunity to explore previously “unthinkable” options.

Ms Sturgeon also said she thought Scotland was in a “very strong” position in the UK’s Brexit talks after Mrs May said she would not begin the formal process of leaving the EU without a UK-wide consensus.

Brexit Minister David Davis has spoken to Sky News, and is the UK government minister responsible for Brexit. He has said that he did not think Scotland could have such an arrangement when it comes to vetoing the democratic decision.

He added that no-one could have a veto over Brexit, saying the government would not ignore the referendum result.

“One of our really challenging issues to deal with will be the internal border we have with southern Ireland, and we’re not going to go about creating other internal borders inside the United Kingdom.”

What’s your view of a possible 2nd Scottish Independence Referendum next year?

Will Scotland have the powers to veto brexit? Will Scotland having a referendum be in the best interests of the whole UK? Will it be possible for Scotland to have a special status by still being in the EU, despite the vote to leave?

Comment below your views on Brexit, a 2nd Scottish Independent Referendum and Nicola Sturgeon