Brexit Report: Article 50 will be triggered and the UK will leave the single market

SOURCES: BBC

Back in October, ThePoliticsView published an article outlining most of the major political news that occurred in September and October 2016. 

In terms of the UK perspective, it outlined how former UKIP leader Diane James had resigned, triggering a new leadership election for the party to occur. It turns out the new leader voted in was Paul Nuttall, UKIP MEP for the North West of England. He now will contest in February’s Stoke Central by-election after it was triggered by the labour party following the resignation of former labour MP Tristram Hunt.

It also stated that Jeremy Corbyn had won the leadership election for Labour, beating contestant Owen Smith to hold his spot as The Labour Party leader. Tristram Hunt was a known critic of Corbyn, hence partly why he resigned, as well as former Copeland MP Jamie Reed who’s resignation has triggered a by-election in Copeland on the same day as Stoke Central, 23rd February.

The Liberal Democrats have shown a resurgence of late winning multiple council elections and the Parliamentary by-election in Richmond where new MP Sarah Olney beat former Conservative MP, turned Independent Zac Goldsmith over the Heathrow Expansion row.  They are clearly aiming to appeal to remain voters after constantly addressing the issues of leaving the EU and critiquing the Conservative Governments Brexit plans.

But how has the following come to fruition?

Simply, you could argue one word has created this change. Brexit.

The country voted for Brexit on June 23rd, and despite numerous of stories and attempts for a Veto on Brexit; including a high court lawsuit against the Government to allow a Parliamentary vote on Article 50, it’s happening sooner than later.

The September/October summary also expanded on how Prime Minister Theresa May has promised Brexit will happen by March 2017.  This is now inevitably going to happen sometime in late March, early April time.

Article 50 will be triggered and the UK is leaving the EU.

Theresa May has stated already that the UK must leave the single market, tighten immigration into the UK and be a world leader in free-trade. 

She has also proclaimed that the two+ year process that Article 50 gives towards leaving the EU, will be heavily negotiated to put the UK first.

She now wants free-trade trade deals for the UK across the globe with other nations as a consequence of leaving the single market the EU allows access members to.

This all sounds rather promising and encouraging despite what critics say. Some say it’s easier said than done, some say it can be done, but it won’t be easy.

It for sure won’t be easy. The UK will now have to intensely lobby the EU to allow the UK to leave with as many benefits as possible. The reason it will be tough, is due to the so-called bureaucracy and stubbornness the EU has in place and the fact they won’t let the UK have to many benefits from Brexit, in case other eurosceptic nations follow suit to a Brexit in there own way.

This is why the UK is accepting it has to leave the single market. There is little to no chance of keeping free market status, if the UK is wanting to stop the freedom of movement into the State. That is a simple fact.

So what will the UK hope to look like post Brexit come 2018/2019 or beyond? In summary:

  • The UK will be officially independent and out of the EU.
  • The freedom of movement into the UK will be stopped.
  • The UK will be out of the Single Market.
  • The UK will begin or expand on free-trade deals globally.
  • The UK will begin to open trade deals with the EU states, hoping to be Tariff and Tax free.
  • The UK will prepare for the 2020 General Election.

That is a basic summary of what the UK will want to look like according to the Prime Minister Theresa May. Will this be the case? It’s very difficult to say. But optimism is essential and the Government will need to go into talks with the EU representing not only the people who voted to leave, but the people who wanted to remain also.

This is going to be the one of the most difficult and uncertain times in UK political history, especially since the 1st and 2nd World War’s.

Not only that, but the UK itself finds themselves in a battle to keep itself together, especially after Scotland’s Leader Nicola Sturgeon is undoubtably going to attempt to trigger another Scottish Independence Referendum before the new decade, after their access to the free-market will be stopped.

Turbulence is undoubtedly expected, but as stated, the UK will leave the EU in some form.

The question is, how do you think the UK will get on both during negotiations, and post negotiations with the EU? 

Will we acquire good trade deals globally?

Will Scotland become independent? 

Will the Conservatives win the 2020 General Election?

Will UKIP be relevant over the next 4-5 years?

Comment your views on Brexit, the UK, UK parties during the Brexit process and a possible Scottish Referendum below

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Local Election Results and News

Source: BBC, ITV

The results for May 5th’s ‘Super-Thursday’ elections are all in and counted. The following are key points as to how things turned out by election type and location:

Key points:

  • SNP celebrate victory in Scotland but fall short of a majority
  • Scottish Conservatives push Labour into third
  • Labour remains the largest party in Welsh Assembly but fall short of majority
  • Labour’s Sadiq Khan is elected Mayor of London beating Conservative Zac Goldsmith by 13.6%
  • UKIP makes ground in Wales, with former Tory MP Neil Hamilton winning an assembly seat

Results by Location:

  • Scotland: SNP 63, Conservative 31, Labour 24, Greens 6, Lib Dems 5.
  • Wales: Labour 29, Plaid Cymru 12, Conservatives 11, UKIP 7, Lib Dems 1.
  • England: Labour 56 councils won, Conservatives 31, Lib Dems 4.
  • Northern Ireland: DUP 38, SF 28, UUP 16, SDLP 12, APNI 8, TUV 1, Independent 1, Green 2, PBPA 2.

London:

Sadiq Khan has been elected the new Mayor of London, beating Conservative Zac Goldsmith by 1, 310,143 votes to 994,614. Labour wins seats from the Conservatives on the London Assembly.

PCC Results:

Multiple PCC results are also in.

So, how do you think the elections went? Did the elections that effect you most, go the way you wanted it to? Will those elected do a good job? Will Sadiq Kahn lead London succsesfully? Will these elections have any effects on the next 2020 General Election?

Comment Below your views on the Election results 

Election Day: Local, Police and Mayoral Voting

Source: The Guardian

Today is an important day for UK politics, in which known as an election day.

Depending on where you live, you will vote in the following:

  • Local council elections in England and regional mayors
  • Mayor of London and London assembly
  • Scottish parliament
  • Welsh assembly
  • Northern Ireland assembly
  • Police and crime commissioners

Anyone 18 or over who is a British citizen living in the UK, a qualifying Commonwealth citizen living in the UK, or an EU citizen living in the UK can vote in the English, Welsh, London or Northern Irish contests.

So, what are the polls predicting?

England Local Elections:

”Opposition parties are expected to do well in local elections that immediately follow a general election. The Tories and Labour will be hoping they can tell a good news story on 6 May. Labour will want to boast of how many new seats it won, while the Tories will want a weak showing, even if Labour technically increases its number of council seats” (Guardian 2016).

London Assembly/ Mayor Elections:

Londoners will be given two choices when they elect the capital’s mayor.

”Labour’s Sadiq Khan is well ahead of his Tory rival, Zac Goldsmith, with YouGov putting him 20 points in front, and increasing his lead once second preferences are counted.” (Guardian 2016)

Scottish Parliament Elections:

”Scotland’s 4 million voters will elect 129 MSPs to the Holyrood chamber for a five-year term. For the first time in a parliamentary election, 16- and 17-year-olds will be able to vote. The last election saw the Scottish National party form a majority government for the first time, winning 69 seats compared with Labour’s 35. The Tories are looking to overtake Labour in Scotland for the first time” (Guardian 2016).

Wales Assembly Elections:

”The latest opinion poll has revealed Labour support at its lowest since 2010. Plaid Cymru is in clear second place. Ukip is also in ascendency in Wales, and Labour will be unlikely to maintain its current number of seats. The Eurosceptic party is expected to do well in places such as Newport among white working-class former Labour voters.Police and Crime Commissioners Election” (Guardian 2016).

Northern Ireland Assembly Elections: 

”There are 108 MLAs (members of the legislative assembly) representing 18 constituencies. Each constituency is represented by six MLAs.It is likely that the status quo will prevail with the DUP still in pole position while Sinn Féin remains the dominant nationalist party.”

”It’s probably the least high-profile election this week, but PCCs are elected representatives who oversee police forces and hold them to account, replacing police authorities from 2012.”

Police and Crime Commissioners Elections:

”Turnout for the first commissioner elections in November 2012 was abysmal, just 15%. Some subsequent by elections have seen turnout as low as 10%. Those who did turn out last time voted for 192 candidates; this time there is a choice of 188.”

”Of those elected, 16 were Conservatives, 13 were Labour and 12 were independents, most of them former police officers.” (Guardian 2016)

So, what’s your view of the election prediction polls?

Who do you think will win each election?  Who will London’s new Mayor be? Will the PPC election see a higher turnout this year? Who will you vote for and why?

Comment below your views in the comment section